DreamMortgages.ca - Raja Maan

Here’s one way to tackle the red-hot Canadian housing market: Get someone to buy you a home.

That someone would be your parents. According to a new survey from TD Canada Trust, 10% of Canadians are considering buying a condominium for their adult children. A year ago, only 5% of parents thought about buying the kids a condo.

“It could be something that the parents are looking at as a long-term source of income, letting their children live it in for now,” says Chris Wisniewski, associate vice-president of real estate and secured lending with TD.

It could also be that parents know condominium prices, like detached homes, have climbed to unprecedented levels, making it difficult for adult children to come up with a minimum 5% down payment, let alone the 20% needed to avoid costly mortgage default insurance.

Toronto condo research firm Urbanation Inc. says the average existing condominium in the city sold for $331,000 in the first quarter of 2010. Based on an average $369-per-square-foot price, that’s a 900-square-foot unit.

For a new one, prices averaged $443 per square foot in the first quarter, so about $400,000 for that same-sized condo.

Ms. Wisniewski says low interest rates are convincing parents to step up and buy their children homes. The condominium represents an attractive alternative to those parents because the costs are stable.

“They know what the maintenance costs will be,” she says. “[Parents] are thinking, ‘I’m not worried my children are too young to accept the responsibilities of home ownership if I set them up in an apartment. They don’t have to recognize the responsibilities of maintenance in an apartment.’ ”

Parents might also see a condominium as a way to get their kids to start a family. The survey found 36% of Canadians are willing to raise families in a condo.

“One of the reasons for that is affordability,” says Ms. Wisniewski. “Where are the new condominiums being built? They are being integrated in really nice existing neighbourhoods with all the infrastructure and all the schools and amenities.”

Brian Johnston, president of developer Monarch Corp.’s Canadian division, says he doubts families will ever be integrated into the condominium stock, but does agrees with the premise that parents are helping to buy housing for their children. He says parents often want to keep children close to them so they’ll chip in for a condominium in a nearby neighbourhood.

“How do we know they’re helping out? They tell us when they are writing the cheques for the deposit,” Mr. Johnston says.

Mr. Johnston said when it comes to recent immigrants to Canada, there is “lots of help” from family members to get that first home. “Condominiums are not inexpensive and they’re going to need that help, particularly if the younger ones have not had time to build up their finances.”

The builder has his own children and, based on today’s prices, he figures he’s going to have to lend a helping hand. “I don’t expect them to be able to buy a condo … before they are 30. That is just part of the deal [for parents],” says Mr. Johnston.

It’s not like Baby Boomers don’t have the cash. There have been endless studies that suggest the Boomers are set to inherit billions of dollars in the coming years from their parents.

Craig Alexander, deputy chief economist with TD Bank Financial Group, says there is no hard data to suggest how much parents are helping children, but they certainly have the financial capacity to lend a hand.

Canadians have $1.5-trillion invested in stocks and mutual funds with $500-billion of that figure in capital gains.

“The generation before the Baby Boomers were big savers and, as a consequence, there is a very large income transfer going to take place over time,” says Mr. Alexander, adding it makes sense that some of that money is going to end up in housing and real estate.

For first-time buyers facing rising rates and increasing prices, the helping hand couldn’t come at a better time — just ahead of tighter mortgage financing rules. Most of them probably hope their folks go from “considering” buying a condo to actually doing it.

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This TaxNewsFlash-Canada summarizes the proposed changes to the Ontario HST new housing rebate and some of the transitional rules proposed in Ontario Revenue’s Information Notice No. 2, released on June 18, 2009. References to “new homes” in thisTaxNewsFlash-Canada include both newly constructed and substantially renovated homes.

New housing rebate
Ontario proposes to enhance the new housing rebate it announced in its 2009 budget, which provided a partial rebate of the provincial component of the HST on new housing priced up to $500,000. As originally announced, for new homes priced under $400,000, the rebate would equal 75% of the provincial component. The rebate would be reduced for new homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000 and would not be available for homes priced at more than $500,000.

Under the enhanced rebate announced on June 18, 2009, the $500,000 threshold to qualify for a rebate will be eliminated. As such, new homes purchased as primary residences across all price ranges will qualify for a rebate of up to $24,000 of the 8% provincial component of the HST.

The rebate will be 75% of the provincial portion of the HST payable on the purchase of a new home, up to a maximum rebate of $24,000 (i.e., $400,000 × 8% provincial component = $32,000 ×75% rebate = $24,000).

New home buyers may also be eligible for the federal GST new housing rebate, which generally equals 36% of the tax paid on the first $350,000 of the purchase price. The amount of the GST rebate is phased out on a straight-line basis for homes priced between $350,000 and less than $450,000.

The Ontario HST rebate will be provided for the same types of new residential properties as the GST new housing rebate. Qualifying housing will include substantially renovated housing, co-operative housing, owner-built housing, housing on leased land, mobile homes and modular homes for use as primary residences.

Similar to the GST system, Ontario proposes to limit the new housing rebate to homes for use as primary places of residences. As such, recreational properties such as cottages and ski chalets not used as primary residences would generally not qualify for the new housing rebate.

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Feb 16, 2010

Federal finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced new rules Tuesday aimed at preventing homebuyers from getting into financial difficulty when mortgage rates rise.

After consulting with major Canadian lenders, Flaherty outlined the latest weapons at Ottawa's disposal aimed at removing some of the speculative froth in the housing market.

"There is no evidence of a housing bubble, but we're taking prudent steps today to prevent one," he said at a news conference in Ottawa. "If some lenders aren't willing to act themselves, we will act."

Broadly speaking, the plan unveiled has three components.

First, Ottawa will require that all borrowers meet the standards for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, even if they choose a variable mortgage with a lower rate or a shorter term.

"This will guard against higher rates in the future," Flaherty said.

Second, the rules would lower the maximum Canadians can withdraw when refinancing their mortgages to 90 per cent of the value of their home, from 95 per cent.

And finally, Ottawa will now require a minimum 20 per cent down payment to qualify for CMHC insurance for non-owner-occupied properties purchased as an investment.

The last rule is aimed at reining in would-be real estate speculators who own multiple properties beyond their primary residence.

"We want to discourage the tendency some people have to use a home as an ATM, or buy three or four condos on speculation," Flaherty said.

Minimum down payment unchanged

There had been speculation the Department of Finance might implement legislation raising the minimum down payment from five to 10 per cent of a home's value, or reduce the maximum amortization period from 35 years to 30 years.

Those measures were not part of Flaherty's announcement Tuesday, but all options are still on the table should circumstances change, Flaherty said.

The adjustments to the mortgage insurance guarantee framework, to be implemented as of April 19, 2010, are not likely to revolutionize the industry. Indeed, current policies at some large Canadian lenders are similar to the first peg of Flaherty's plan.

After Tuesday's announcement, the Bank of Montreal noted that it already requires its high-ratio borrowers to be able to qualify using the five-year rate. And all banks currently test all mortgage applicants on a three-year fixed-rate mortgage rule, Toronto-Dominion bank says.

"While we do not believe that Canada faces a housing bubble, we fully support the minister's actions," Bank of Montreal said in a release. "Given the prospect of higher interest rates and the recent run-up in housing prices in some markets across Canada, the measures announced today are prudent."

"This is a little bit late in telling Canadians we need to be more cautious in taking out a mortgage," Royal Bank chief economist Patricia Croft said in reaction to Flaherty's announcement.

Though she stopped short of calling Canadian real estate in bubble territory already, she said the April 19 date for implementation is actually likely to cause more short-term stimulation of the market, as people scramble to get in under the deadline.

"If you wanted to buy a house, wouldn't you now do it before April?" Croft asked. "It's even more evidence that house prices are going to cool down later this year."

In terms of the impact on real estate buyers, the policy change will have an effect on a large portion of new buyers, TD Bank deputy chief economist Craig Alexander said in a report Tuesday. "Perhaps a quarter of all new mortgage originations might be influenced," he said.

The requirement that all buyers are held to the five-year fixed-rate standards will be particularly important, Alexander said. Based on the average home price of $337,000, a buyer with only five per cent down would require roughly $9,200 more in annual income to qualify under the new rules, he estimated.

For its part, the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals says it supports the amendments, calling them preventative measures against possible future risk.

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An interest rate hike this summer?

Don't count on it. For the Bank of Canada to raise rates before the middle part of 2011 would be totally inconsistent with its current forecast

David Rosenberg Published on Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2010

David Rosenberg is chief strategist for Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. and a guest columnist for Report on Business

Canadian market watchers will get some good news this week. The predictions for a "blowout" reading on fourth-quarter GDP are already out there and it is likely to be an abnormally strong number. But for anyone who thinks a big number is likely to help lock in a rate hike this summer, I would suggest that is not going to happen. In fact, my view is that the Bank of Canada will not be raising rates until mid-2011 - at the earliest.

This is critical to the outlook for Canadian money market and bond yields since futures have priced in nearly 100 per cent odds of a 25 basis point rate hike this June, and another 25 basis points by September. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.) The central bank has already told us that its base case is for 2.9 per cent real GDP growth this year and 3.5 per cent next year, with the starting point on the "output gap" being 3.7 per cent ("output gap" is the gap between the actual level of real GDP and where real GDP would be if the economy were at full capacity). Remember that an output gap that big in any given quarter classifies as a 1-in-20 event. Moreover, baselining these expected growth rates against the latest estimates of potential growth puts the output gap at a smaller level of 1.55 per cent this year, narrowing further to 0.25 per cent in 2011.

The history of the Bank of Canada is such that - outside of when it had to defend the Canadian dollar - it typically does not embark on its tightening phase until the output gap is close to closing. Even during the aggressive John Crow era, the bank's modus operandi was to time the first rate hike just as spare capacity was being eliminated, and not much before. On average, the first central bank rate hike following a recession takes place one quarter before the output gap closes (there is still a gap, but it is small at 20 basis points). If such a strategy is replicated this time around - and the cause for being on pause longer in the context of a historic deleveraging cycle is certainly quite strong - then the very earliest the bank will move is the second quarter of 2011.

Under this scenario, based on some back-of-the envelope calculations I just did, the unemployment rate at no time declines below 7.5 per cent through to the end of 2011. The peak in the jobless rate was 8.7 per cent in August, 2009. Going back to prior recessions, the central bank does not begin to tighten rates until the jobless rate is down an average of 150 basis points with a range of 130 basis points to 170 basis points.

Unless the bank wants to be pre-emptive - highly unlikely when it acknowledges in its economic outlook last week that "the recovery continues to depend on exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus" and that "the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside" - then to raise rates before the middle part of 2011 would be totally inconsistent with its current forecast. More to the point, while bored Bay Street economists analyze every word to see if the bank is more or less "hawkish" than in its previous outlook, what is important for investors is to assess the bank forecast and decide what it means for the degree of excess capacity in the economy and what that implies for the future inflation rate.

The bottom line is that even with the fragile recovery, the bank sees more downside than upside risk to its inflation projection, and, to reiterate, for it to start tightening policy until the jobless rate falls below 7.5 per cent would be a break from past post-recession actions.

And whatever future "policy tightening" is needed could also come via the overextended loonie, limiting any need for an interest rate adjustment in the time horizon that the markets have discounted. This is a source of debate on Bay Street, but the bank is still sensitive to the growth-dampening impact of an exchange rate too firm for its own good. To wit: "The persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the low absolute level of U.S. demand continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in Canada," the bank says.

In a nutshell, the Canadian market is already braced for 50 basis points of tightening from the Bank of Canada by September. With that in mind, it is difficult to believe that there is any significant rate risk here; if anything, the surprise will be that the bank is on hold for longer. If that proves to be true, then there is actually more downside than upside potential to Canadian bond yields, particularly at the front end of the coupon curve.

The reason the markets think the bank may pull the trigger is because of this one sentence that shows up in every press statement: "Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target."

So the central bank has really only given a pledge to keep rates where they are until mid-year. But June is only five months away and so one would have to think that at one of the next three meetings, the Bank is going to have to update this particular sentence or cut it entirely and leave the market without a de facto time commitment. Either way, the moment the bank changes this sentence is the moment the market will put on hold its expectations of a new rate-hiking cycle coming our way.

Until then, homeowners opting for variable rate mortgage financing will likely not have to face the interest rate music.

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January 25, 2010

Does my reno qualify for a tax credit?

Bryant Renovations at a Leslieville home where they're renovating the bathroom and replacing the flooring of the main floor. Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

With days until deadline, Canadians scramble to take advantage of the government's home renovation tax credit

· Roma Luciw Globe and Mail

With the Jan. 31 deadline just around the corner, anyone who still wants to take advantage of the federal government's popular home renovation tax credit had better hurry.

“The most important thing for people to know is that they still have a week to buy and take delivery of materials that they are thinking of using for renovations,” Jamie Golombek, managing director of estate and tax planning with CIBC Private Wealth Management, said in an interview Wednesday.

Although it is likely too late to get the labour done in time, “anyone thinking of doing anything in their home in the next few months should try to get that material now... otherwise you are really losing out.”

The home reno tax credit, introduced as a limited-time program in the 2009 federal budget, has proven extremely popular with housing-obsessed Canadians. “Anecdotally, it is the topic of almost every single presentation I give in terms of personal tax. The Canada Revenue Agency has responded to more technical interpretation questions in terms of what qualifies and what does not than any other topic in recent history,” Mr. Golombek added

“ Anecdotally, it is the topic of almost every single presentation I give in terms of personal tax. ”— CIBC's Jamie Golombek said of the HRTC

The CRA estimates that as of last Friday, more than four million Canadians had enquired about the program. From Jan. 2 to 15 alone, 302,501 people visited the CRA website or phoned to ask about the HRTC.

Timing has played a role in the HRTC's success, says Mr. Golombek, given that rates for home equity lines of credit are still historically low. “Even if people don't have the actual cash to do the renos right now, they can borrow the money at very attractive interest rates and get a 15-per-cent non-refundable credit from the government.”

Here's how the HRTC works:

Each family is allowed to claim on their 2009 income tax return a 15-per-cent non-refundable tax credit for eligible renovation expenses made to their dwelling. The credit allows tax payers to get up to $1,350 in tax relief for projects worth between $1,000 and $10,000. The $10,000 spending limit applies to homes, cottages or condos, provided the combined total does not exceed the $1,350 limit.

To qualify, all of the renos must take place after Jan. 27, 2009 and before Feb. 1, 2010. The supplies and materials must be bought and in your possession before Feb. 1st, 2010 to be eligible. Likewise, any work done by a contractor must be finished by the deadline, which means that signing a contract for the work ahead of the deadline is not sufficient.

To qualify for the HRTC, renos must be of “an enduring nature and integral to the dwelling.” So putting in a permanent swimming pool or hot tub, a new dock or septic system at the cottage, fixing a retaining wall or doing some landscaping all qualify. Cleaning your carpet, house or eavestrough would not qualify, nor does buying furniture, appliances or electronics.

Who's using it?

Dan Wilson is one many Canadians taking advantage of the credit. He and his neighbour spent most of the fall rebuilding the front porch on their east-end Toronto semi. He also had a contractor fix a flat roof in his backyard, put in a new deck, installed two fireplaces and painted.

“I spent at least three times the limit for the tax credit,” said the 45-year-old Ontario government worker. “I think almost everyone on my street had something done to take advantage of it.”

Robert Katzer had a contractor redo both bathrooms in his Victoria condo, putting in marble sinks and faucets, along with a new bathtub with marble wall linings. Not done there, he upgraded most of the lighting in the unit, replaced the carpets, painted, caulked the windows and retiled the fireplace. “It wasn't cheap but I love the end result,” he said.

Across Canada, the tax credit seems to have provided the push many Canadians needed to get those home reno projects going.

Mr. Wilson says he might have taken care of the renos in the next year or two, but the tax credit prompted him to do it now. “I love this credit. The prospect of getting $1,350 back is just so appealing. If it were continued next year, I would definitely consider re-doing my kitchen next year.”

How long will it last?

Contractors and home renovation retailers would also like to see the tax measure extended, arguing that it would continue to boost the economy and allow the recovery to fully take hold.

But Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said this week the measure was “not inexpensive” and the government's plan is to let it expire at month's end. He also ruled out any kind of extension back in December, when he said: “Well, that's our plan to end it at the end of January, yes.”

RBC Dominion Securities Inc. chartered accountant and certified financial planner Suzanne Schultz says the credit, which was part of the conservative government's stimulus plan, has been successful. “The point of this was to get the economy going and it seems to have done that. People are spending, retailers and contractors are saying they are busy.”

She says people who bought materials in order to qualify for the home renovation tax credit but ran out of time to get the work done before next week's expiry date will likely keep contractors busy for the first part of 2010. After that, however, she expects to see a lull.

Ms. Schultz urged people to get out and make their purchases before the Jan. 31st deadline. “Make a list of what you need done and get shopping. This is not common, for the federal government to introduce short-term tax measurers like this.

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December 18, 2009

Economic recovery is 'solidly entrenched': BoC

OTTAWA -- After months of uncertainty, the economic recovery now appears to be "solidly entrenched," the Bank of Canada said Tuesday, indicating its forecast for growth should unfold as envisaged.

Still, in its latest interest rate announcement, the central bank reiterated, as expected, its conditional commitment to keep its key policy rate at a record low 0.25% until June 2010 as inflation is still not expected to hit its preferred 2% target until the second half of 2011.

Recent data – from retail sales to a stunningly strong jobs report for November -- have painted a mostly cheer picture of the Canadian economy, analysts say, even though third-quarter GDP growth of 0.4% annualized came in well below the central bank's 2% expectation.

Since the central bank's latest economic forecast in October, "global economic developments have been slightly more positive and the global outlook has improved modestly," the bank's governing council said in its statement, adding though that "significant fragilities" remain.

The central bank said the composition of economic growth is unfolding as expected, highlighted by a shift toward stronger domestic demand and less reliance on exports.

"The main drivers and the profile of the projected recovery in Canada remain consistent with the bank's [outlook]," it added. "The bank continues to expect economic growth to become more solidly entrenched over the projection period and inflation to return to the 2% target in the second half of 2011."

According to the central bank's outlook, Canada is expected to grow 3.3% this quarter, followed by expansion of 3% next year and 3.3% in 2011. Predictions for strong growth gained steam late last week when data indicated the Canadian economy added 79,000 jobs in November.

Further, the central bank on Tuesday played down the impact of the stronger dollar, even though it acknowledged it remained a key risk to its forecast, and "could act as a significant further drag" on growth and inflation. The stronger loonie, which has advanced as much as 25% this year against its U.S. counterpart, led to a surge in imports in the third quarter – resulting in net exports acting as a drag on the economy of roughly 5.3 percentage points.

Since the last rate announcement, however, the dollar has on average traded a couple of cents below the central bank's working assumption of a US96¢ loonie.

Most analysts were looking for any change in nuance in the bank's statement – in particular a hint or two that it might move before its conditional pledge to keep rates at a record low until June 2010 given the surge in domestic consumption as households take advantage of record low borrowing costs.

Instead, the central bank reiterated that its target rate of 0.25% "can be expected" to remain intact until the end of the second quarter of next year. The pledge is conditional on inflation hitting the 2% target in the third quarter of 2011, as the bank expects.

The last time the bank raised its key policy rate, to 4.5%, was in July of 2007 – and shortly afterward the first signs of the credit crisis emerged.

Some economists, such as Ryan Brecht of Action Economics, expect the central bank to begin hiking its policy rate, and aggressively, starting in the second half of next year.

In a note released Tuesday morning, Mr. Brecht, the firm's senior North American economist, said he envisaged the Bank of Canada raising its target rate by 175 basis points before December of 2010, for a policy rate of 2%, or "more normal levels." Still, that would be below the 3% level in September of 2008, when Lehman Bros. collapsed, or the 4.5% peak hit more than two years ago.

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Rapid rebound fuels fears of housing bubble

Canadian existing home prices are now rising at a pace not seen in 20 years, fueling talk that a bubble may be forming in the market.

The average price of a home sold last month was $341,079, a 20.7% increase from a year ago, the Ottawa-based Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday. Sales also continued to climb with 42,288 units trading hands, a 41% jump from October, 2008.

At the same time that demand continues to surge and interest rates remain at historic lows, supply remains critically low. New listings last month in the country's 25 largest market were off 16% from a year ago.

"I don't think it's a bubble yet," said Doug Porter, an economist with Bank of Montreal. "The rapid-fire rebound in Canadian housing is showing no sign of letting up. While that may be causing some sweaty palms among bubble-phobes, the quick turn is a vivid illustration that monetary policy still works in this country."

Mr. Porter says large markets are skewing average prices, creating a national picture that might seem more buoyant than it is in reality. Toronto, the largest market in the country, saw a 20% increase in price last month from year ago. In Vancouver, the most expensive market in the country, sales were up 170.8% from a year ago.

"There is a little bit of magic in the way they put these numbers together," said Mr. Porter,.

Derek Holt, senior vice-president of economics at Scotia Capital, called what's happening in the marketplace today a once in a lifetime situation. He says record low interest rates, tight supply, a favourable lending environment and government stimulus program have all helped stir the housing pot.

"It's more the medium term, two three years, where we could get into headaches potentially," said Mr. Holt. questioning whether consumers buying today are ready for interest rates that could be three to four percentage points higher by 2011.

Real estate author Garth Turner said the latest figures prove his thesis that Canada is now in a real estate bubble. "We got this type of growth in sales and prices in the middle of a recession. The latest GDP numbers show the economy actually contracted," says Mr. Turner.

A new study from the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals released yesterday shows Canadians are benefitting from the lower interest rates. The average mortgage rate negotiated in the past year was 4.55%, a decline from 5.41% a year ago.

"Clearly people are thinking the worst is behind us and that comes as we have record low rates," said Jim Murphy, president of CAAMP. "If rates were to spike dramatically, there could be some concern but we just don't see that."

Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA said while the latest numbers appear dramatic they have to be kept in context. "Activity in the early part of 2009 had fallen to a decade low. With improvement in consumer confidence and interest rates, sales activity was expected to respond.," he said.

Mr. Klump suggested prices will ease up as seller's start to take advantage of higher prices. However, CREA is now predicting prices will rise 4.2% this year after suggesting they would only increase by 1.5%.

Michael Polzler, executive vice president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada Inc., said he's been expecting these type of price increases. "Last year at this time, everything just stopped. They were very realistic example of where everything was it," he said. "Now we are just back to kind of normal. You are going to see these type of numbers continues into the spring because we are comparing them to last year."

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An interesting article below for your reading Canada’s economy still sputtering

OTTAWA —Canada’s economy unexpectedly went into reverse again in August, adding new uncertainty about the strength and sustainability of the recovery. The country’s real gross domestic product slipped 0.1 per cent in August — the first outright decline in three months — in a broad set-back led by oil-and-gas extraction, mining, utilities, mining and manufacturing. The markets reacted strongly to today’s news, led by the Canadian dollar’s one-cent dive to the mid-92-cent level. Economists said the negative reading, after a flat July that was not revised upwards as some had hoped, will make it very difficult for the economy to match the Bank of Canada’s newest forecast announced last week that growth would average two per cent in the third quarter. With only the September data remaining, it would take a massive bounce to meet the expectation. If it’s a recovery, “it’s a pretty wimpy start of a recovery,” said Scotiabank senior economist Derek Holt. With the strong dollar likely having cut into exports and boosted imports in September, Holt said it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the quarter as a whole could turn in a negative performance — which would mean the recession, technically, did not end. “I don’t rule out a negative (reading) at all,” he said. That is still not the base-case scenario envisioned by economists, however. Most, including Holt, believe the third quarter will show modest growth, but not enough to boost confidence and far behind the 3.5-per-cent pace set by the U.S. for the corresponding period. The two-country comparison appears to support a report by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives this week that argued the United States had done a far better job of rolling out stimulus spending than Ottawa. The report estimates the President Obama administration has outspent the Harper government seven-to-one so far. About half of

Invest in real estate and in your kids

Minimum down payment unchanged

January 28, 2010

January 25, 2010

Does my reno qualify for a tax credit?

December 18, 2009

Economic recovery is 'solidly entrenched': BoC

Rapid rebound fuels fears of housing bubble